Longform Report: The UAE’s Long Game in East Africa
Introduction: From Commerce to Control
For over 20 years, the United Arab Emirates has expanded its footprint across East Africa, led primarily by Dubai-based logistics firms, agricultural companies, and energy ventures. But what began as economic engagement is now increasingly a tool of geostrategic influence — with implications for the region’s politics, conflicts, and alignments.
Strategic Infrastructure: Ports, Pipelines, and Presence
- DP World controls key ports in Djibouti, Berbera (Somaliland), and Bosaso (Puntland), giving the UAE control over vital trade routes from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
- Emirati companies are building inland dry ports and transport corridors linking these assets to landlocked countries like Ethiopia and South Sudan.
- Field hospitals and airstrips in conflict zones (notably in eastern CAR and Sudan’s borderlands) suggest military and surveillance functions far beyond aid delivery.
Ethiopia: A New Ally, A High-Stakes Bet
- The UAE supplied drones and military hardware to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during the Tigray War.
- In exchange, Emirati firms gained access to energy deals, construction contracts, and even agricultural lands.
- Abu Dhabi sees Addis Ababa as a future “anchor state” for Red Sea security — and a partner in countering both political Islam and rival Gulf influence.
Uganda: A Quiet but Crucial Partner
- In Uganda, Emirati companies have secured stakes in refining, telecoms, and military training programs.
- Ugandan officials see the UAE as a reliable, low-conditionality investor — and a counterbalance to China.
- Quiet security cooperation is growing, with reported UAE interest in a forward logistics hub near the Great Lakes region.
The Red Sea Equation: More Than Just Africa
Abu Dhabi’s ambitions in East Africa must be understood in light of its broader Red Sea and Horn of Africa strategy:
- Counter Turkey: With Ankara supporting rival groups and building influence in Somalia and Sudan, the UAE wants to lock down East African allies to limit Turkish inroads.
- Check Iran: The weakening of Iran’s proxies has left a vacuum. The UAE aims to ensure it — not Tehran — defines Gulf-African relations going forward.
- Secure Israel’s Flank: Normalization under the Abraham Accords has increased coordination between Israel and UAE security sectors. Red Sea security is now a shared interest.
Risks and Blowback
The UAE’s long game isn’t risk-free.
- Local communities have protested land grabs and displacement tied to Emirati agribusiness.
- East African governments risk entrapment in Gulf rivalries, especially as UAE-Turkey tensions revive.
- Weaponizing aid and infrastructure may worsen instability in fragile regions like Somalia, South Sudan, and eastern Sudan.
Conclusion: A Strategic Empire in the Making
The UAE is no longer just investing in East Africa — it is entrenching itself. Through logistics, diplomacy, military logistics and elite capture, it is remaking the region in its image. What comes next may depend not just on local leaders — but on how far Abu Dhabi is willing to go to secure its stake in East Africa’s future.
