Once hailed as a unified front shaping Gulf policy, the relationship between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia is now increasingly defined by a silent but intensifying rivalry. From energy politics to diplomacy, media influence, and military strategies, the two Gulf powers are diverging in ways that may reshape the future of the Middle East.
At the heart of this growing rift are conflicting visions of regional leadership. Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), has launched Vision 2030—a comprehensive roadmap to transform the Kingdom into a global investment and tourism hub. To achieve this, Riyadh has pressured multinational corporations and news agencies to relocate their regional headquarters to the Kingdom, effectively challenging Abu Dhabi’s status as the business and media capital of the Gulf.
In response, the UAE has doubled down on its traditional assets: soft power, financial influence, and regional agility. Through massive humanitarian aid programs, cultural diplomacy, and intelligence cooperation, Abu Dhabi has maintained strategic depth, especially in Africa and the Red Sea. UAE firms like DP World and Abu Dhabi Ports have expanded their grip on key maritime corridors, investing heavily in ports across the Horn of Africa, from Somalia to Sudan.
Yet even more contentious is their divergence on geopolitical issues. In Yemen, the UAE and Saudi Arabia were once united under a Saudi-led coalition to defeat the Houthi rebels. That unity shattered when the UAE threw its support behind the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which now controls large swaths of southern Yemen and challenges the Saudi-backed government in Aden. Reports of Emirati bases on Socotra and Perim Island alarmed Riyadh, indicating Abu Dhabi’s long-term aspirations for maritime dominance.
In Sudan, tensions are sharper still. The UAE has been accused by Sudan’s military government of supplying the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), with arms and funds. Riyadh, meanwhile, has shifted toward backing Sudan’s regular army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, after initial attempts at neutrality. This has effectively turned Sudan into a proxy battleground for Emirati and Saudi interests.
The competition has also spilled into OPEC+. UAE’s push to increase its oil production capacity has clashed with Saudi Arabia’s strategy to maintain output restrictions. Accusations of the UAE undermining OPEC+ quotas have surfaced, with media outlets like The Economist labeling Abu Dhabi a “serial cheater” in the cartel. Saudi Arabia, historically the group’s enforcer, has reportedly opted for diplomacy over confrontation—a calculated silence reflecting the fragile state of Gulf unity.
Diplomatic realignments further reflect this silent contest. The UAE led the charge in normalizing ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords, rapidly expanding its security and economic cooperation with Tel Aviv. Riyadh, while welcoming the initiative, insists it won’t establish formal ties without progress on Palestinian statehood. This divergence underscores a broader philosophical gap: Abu Dhabi favors bold, transactional diplomacy, while Riyadh seeks leadership through spectacle and symbolic alignment.
Perhaps the most illustrative moment of their rivalry was Saudi Arabia’s surprise rapprochement with Iran in 2023—brokered not by the West, but by China. The UAE, which had already reengaged with Tehran, was sidelined. While publicly supportive, analysts saw this as a blow to Abu Dhabi’s centrality in regional diplomacy.
Meanwhile, friction over maritime boundaries has reemerged. Saudi Arabia recently filed a complaint with the UN over the UAE’s designation of the Yasat islands as a protected marine area, claiming it violates the 1974 Treaty of Jeddah. Though seemingly minor, this dispute signals a deeper mistrust and a willingness to use international forums to air grievances.
In Africa, competition is no less fierce. The UAE is the leading Gulf investor on the continent, channeling funds into infrastructure, logistics, and energy sectors. Saudi Arabia, playing catch-up, has launched its own Africa strategy, courting governments with aid, investment, and security cooperation. Both nations see Africa as the next frontier in their quest for global relevance.
Despite their many differences, the UAE and Saudi Arabia remain formal allies within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). But their visions are no longer synchronized. One relies on economic dynamism and behind-the-scenes maneuvering; the other, on oil diplomacy, megaprojects, and symbolic gestures.
As this silent rivalry intensifies, the question is no longer whether the Gulf alliance is fraying. It’s how long it can hold before open competition replaces quiet divergence—with profound consequences for the region and beyond.
