Longform Report: The UAE’s Long Game in East Africa

Introduction: From Commerce to Control

For over 20 years, the United Arab Emirates has expanded its footprint across East Africa, led primarily by Dubai-based logistics firms, agricultural companies, and energy ventures. But what began as economic engagement is now increasingly a tool of geostrategic influence — with implications for the region’s politics, conflicts, and alignments.

Strategic Infrastructure: Ports, Pipelines, and Presence

• DP World controls key ports in Djibouti, Berbera (Somaliland), and Bosaso (Puntland), giving the UAE control over vital trade routes from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.
• Emirati companies are building inland dry ports and transport corridors linking these assets to landlocked countries like Ethiopia and South Sudan.
• Field hospitals and airstrips in conflict zones (notably in eastern CAR and Sudan’s borderlands) suggest military and surveillance functions far beyond aid delivery.

Ethiopia: A New Ally, A High-Stakes Bet

• The UAE supplied drones and military hardware to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed during the Tigray War.
• In exchange, Emirati firms gained access to energy deals, construction contracts, and even agricultural lands.
• Abu Dhabi sees Addis Ababa as a future “anchor state” for Red Sea security — and a partner in countering both political Islam and rival Gulf influence.

Uganda: A Quiet but Crucial Partner

• In Uganda, Emirati companies have secured stakes in refining, telecoms, and military training programs.
• Ugandan officials see the UAE as a reliable, low-conditionality investor — and a counterbalance to China.
• Quiet security cooperation is growing, with reported UAE interest in a forward logistics hub near the Great Lakes region.

The Red Sea Equation: More Than Just Africa

Abu Dhabi’s ambitions in East Africa must be understood in light of its broader Red Sea and Horn of Africa strategy:

• Counter Turkey: With Ankara supporting rival groups and building influence in Somalia and Sudan, the UAE wants to lock down East African allies to limit Turkish inroads.
• Check Iran: The weakening of Iran’s proxies has left a vacuum. The UAE aims to ensure it — not Tehran — defines Gulf-African relations going forward.
• Secure Israel’s Flank: Normalization under the Abraham Accords has increased coordination between Israel and UAE security sectors. Red Sea security is now a shared interest.

Risks and Blowback

The UAE’s long game isn’t risk-free.

• Local communities have protested land grabs and displacement tied to Emirati agribusiness.
• East African governments risk entrapment in Gulf rivalries, especially as UAE-Turkey tensions revive.
• Weaponizing aid and infrastructure may worsen instability in fragile regions like Somalia, South Sudan, and eastern Sudan.

Conclusion: A Strategic Empire in the Making

The UAE is no longer just investing in East Africa — it is entrenching itself. Through logistics, diplomacy, military logistics and elite capture, it is remaking the region in its image. What comes next may depend not just on local leaders — but on how far Abu Dhabi is willing to go to secure its stake in East Africa’s future.