Full Report: The Price of Expanding the Abraham Accords — UAE’s Role in Shaping a “New Middle East”

In recent months, as the dust settled on Israel’s brief but brutal war with Iran, a new chapter in Middle East diplomacy has opened — one driven by Washington and Tel Aviv but quietly orchestrated from Abu Dhabi. The UAE is not just a participant in the Abraham Accords: it is their chief promoter and engineer.

A New Regional Blueprint

From the halls of Washington to capitals across the Gulf, the UAE is actively brokering an expanded Abraham Accords framework that could soon include Saudi Arabia, Syria, Oman, and even Lebanon. Under the pretext of containing Iran, Abu Dhabi has become the linchpin of this effort — offering billions in investments and reconstruction funds to entice hesitant regimes.

This is not mere diplomacy. It is a project to redraw the region’s architecture: consolidating an anti-Iran bloc that folds Arab capitals into an Israeli-led security order, while reducing Palestine to a rhetorical afterthought.

The Saudi Question

Saudi Arabia remains the most consequential target for normalization. While Riyadh insists on a roadmap toward Palestinian statehood as a precondition, UAE lobbying aims to minimize this demand — framing normalization as essential for regional modernization and security.

Behind closed doors, UAE envoys push for phased agreements, downplaying the Palestinian cause while emphasizing trade, technology, and shared threats from Iran.

Syria, Oman, and Lebanon: The Next Frontiers

In Damascus, UAE-brokered talks propose economic aid and phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of the Golan Heights in exchange for normalization. Abu Dhabi’s promise: billions in reconstruction funds, much-needed after years of civil war and sanctions.

Oman remains cautious, but UAE diplomatic and financial pressure persists, aiming to shift Muscat’s historic neutrality toward quiet alignment.

Lebanon, fractured and deeply influenced by Hezbollah, appears resistant, but UAE-backed media platforms flood the Lebanese discourse with narratives of eventual reconciliation with Israel.

Popular Opposition and the Cost to Palestine

Arab public opinion remains overwhelmingly opposed. Surveys show near-universal rejection of normalization in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. Even in relatively moderate Oman, majorities oppose such a shift.

Yet the UAE’s strategy bypasses the street, focusing on elites, institutions, and regimes — leveraging investment, lobbying, and media to project normalization as progress.

What is sacrificed in this process is clear: Palestinian rights, statehood, and justice. The Abraham Accords’ expansion aims not to resolve these issues but to sideline them permanently.

A Manufactured “Peace”

The UAE’s narrative is seductive: modernization, innovation, regional integration. But behind this rhetoric lies a campaign to embed Israel’s dominance, marginalize Palestine, and construct a security architecture anchored in occupation.

The UAE’s role is pivotal, using its wealth and diplomatic networks to package normalization as inevitable while shielding Israel from accountability for ongoing occupation and war crimes.

Conclusion: The Real Price

If Riyadh, Damascus, and Muscat join the Abraham Accords, the cost will be borne by Palestinians — further isolation, entrenched injustice, and the rewriting of regional norms that once prioritized their cause.

The UAE’s project is not simply about peace. It is about constructing a new regional order that normalizes occupation while excluding Palestinian voices from the table.

Dark Box will continue to expose the UAE’s central role in this transformation, and the hidden price being paid by the Palestinian people and the Arab world at large.