From Sudan to Western Sahara: UAE’s High-Stakes Gamble in North Africa
From the war-torn streets of Khartoum to the disputed territories of Western Sahara, the United Arab Emirates is steadily embedding itself in North Africa’s most sensitive and unstable theaters. Once viewed as a rising soft power reliant on financial influence, the UAE has now matured into a full-spectrum geopolitical actor, engaging in both overt diplomacy and covert military alliances to shape outcomes across the continent.
Sudan: Fueling the Fire
The most troubling example of Emirati involvement is Sudan. Since April 2023, Sudan has been ravaged by a brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Reports from regional and international observers accuse the UAE of arming and financing the RSF, a group with a dark record of atrocities, particularly during the Darfur conflict.
Weapons shipments allegedly routed through Libya and Chad have strengthened RSF positions, while UAE-linked cargo flights and aid convoys have raised eyebrows. Sudan’s military has openly condemned what it sees as external aggression, and its foreign ministry has called on Abu Dhabi to stop fueling the war.
Libya: The Warlord’s Patron
In Libya, the UAE’s relationship with Khalifa Haftar has been consistent and controversial. Abu Dhabi has provided military support and strategic intelligence to Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which has battled both Islamist militias and the internationally recognized Tripoli government.
Despite repeated calls from the UN to cease arms transfers, the UAE has reportedly helped Haftar acquire drones, armored vehicles, and surveillance systems. This support has extended Haftar’s political lifespan but at the cost of Libya’s fragile peace process.
Western Sahara: Trading Recognition for Influence
Further west, the UAE has thrown its support behind Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara. This alignment came shortly after Morocco normalized relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords, brokered in part by the UAE.
Abu Dhabi has since signed multi-billion-dollar investment agreements with Rabat, covering infrastructure, tourism, and defense. Critics argue that this transactional diplomacy ignores the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination.
The Algeria Factor
Abu Dhabi’s regional moves have not gone unnoticed in Algiers. Algeria, a staunch supporter of the Sahrawi cause and wary of foreign meddling, has voiced its concerns over the UAE’s role in Libya and Western Sahara. The cooling ties between Algiers and Abu Dhabi signal that the UAE’s North Africa ambitions may not go unchallenged.
Conclusion: Empire by Proxy?
The UAE’s evolving strategy in North Africa suggests a state bent on regional dominance through proxy politics, investment diplomacy, and selective alliances. From backing controversial militias to reshaping diplomatic maps, the Emirates has discarded any pretense of neutrality.
As the fires of conflict rage across the region, Abu Dhabi’s high-stakes gamble could either cement its position as a regional powerbroker or plunge it into a quagmire of endless entanglements. Either way, North Africa will not be the same.
